2003—2023年大西洋鲑与虹鳟养殖温室气体的跨国比较与演变规律

CROSS-NATIONAL COMPARISON AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN ATLANTIC SALMON AND RAINBOW TROUT AQUACULTURE (2003—2023)

  • 摘要: 本研究基于排放因子法并结合相关排放模型, 对2003—2023年挪威、智利、英国、加拿大和中国五国鲑鳟养殖的温室气体排放特征进行系统评估, 并在CO2当量尺度上进行分析, 揭示其时空变化规律、国家差异及空间集聚特征。结果表明, 2003—2023年五国鲑鳟总产量由126.6万吨增至271.0万吨(增幅114%), 同期温室气体排放增幅为85%, 低于产量增幅, 其中氧化亚氮(N2O)排放量下降36.8%, 表明饲料效率提升与养殖技术进步对减排发挥了重要作用。在物种尺度上, 虹鳟养殖的温室气体排放强度低于大西洋鲑。在国家尺度上, 挪威表现出以效率提升为导向的排放控制特征, 排放强度持续下降; 智利受海洋生态环境波动影响, 排放变化幅度较大; 英国与加拿大呈现相对稳定的排放格局; 中国则通过养殖模式优化与技术进步, 实现了排放强度的持续改善。在区域尺度上, 各国鲑鳟养殖温室气体排放均呈显著空间集聚, 热点区域主要分布于挪威西海岸、智利的湖大区和艾森区、英国苏格兰西北部、加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省及中国西北高原区, 反映出养殖密度与区域生态承载条件之间的紧密关联。本研究揭示了主要鲑鳟生产国温室气体排放的时空格局及其与产业增长的演变关系, 为冷水性鲑鳟鱼类养殖业的低碳发展与差异化减排策略制定提供了理论依据。

     

    Abstract: In this study, we develop a harmonized emission factor-based assessment framework, coupled with established emission models, to quantify and compare GHG emissions from Atlantic salmon and rainbow trout aquaculture in Norway, Chile, the United Kingdom, Canada, and China over the period 2003—2023, expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents. We analyze temporal dynamics, cross-country contrasts, and spatial aggregation characteristics of emissions. Across the five countries, total salmonid production increased from 1.27 to 2.71 million tons (114%), whereas aggregate GHG emissions grew at a markedly slower pace (85%). Notably, nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions declined by 36.8%, underscoring the significant role of improved feed efficiency and advances in farming technology in achieving emission reductions. At the species level, rainbow trout consistently exhibited lower emission intensities than Atlantic salmon. National dynamics diverged substantially: Norway showed a sustained reduction in emission intensity driven by efficiency gains; Chile displayed interannual variability associated with marine environmental conditions; the United Kingdom and Canada maintained relatively stable emission profiles; and China achieved progressive intensity reductions through optimization of production systems and technological upgrading. Spatially analysis further revealed significant clustering of salmonid-related GHG emissions, with hotspots concentrated along Norway’s western coast, southern Chile (Los Lagos Region and Aysén Region), north-west Scotland, British Columbia, and the north-western plateau regions of China, underscoring the close coupling between farming intensity and regional ecological carrying capacity. Collectively, these findings elucidate the evolving spatiotemporal structure of greenhouse gas emissions in global salmonid aquaculture and demonstrate a partial decoupling of emission growth from production expansion. This work provides a robust quantitative basis for advancing low-carbon development pathways and designing region-specific mitigation strategies for cold-water salmonid aquaculture.

     

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