生态学研究方法论: 需求牵引、假说驱动、多层次综合、研究-过程尺度匹配、定性定量结合、应用验证

ECOLOGICAL RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: PROBLEM ORIENTATION, HYPOTHESIS DRIVE, MULTI-LEVEL ANALYSIS, STUDY-PROCESS SCALE MATCH, QUALITATIVE-QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES, AND APPLICATION TESTS

  • 摘要: 生态学是研究生物与环境关系的科学, 目的是解决人类面临的生态环境问题。然而, 不少生态研究结果不能可靠地解释、预测野外现象, 更无助于实际问题的解决, 其根本原因是方法论出了问题。与物理系统不同, 生态系统是复杂适应系统, 由具有独特内在性质的适应主体组成; 子系统种类多, 非线性相互作用类型多; 系统不同层次间相互作用不稳定。根据这些特点, 基于科学哲学原理、复杂性科学理论及生态学研究成功案例, 文章首次提出生态学研究方法的六个原则, 建立了生态学研究范式。原则1: 需求牵引。社会需求是科技发展的根本驱动力。生态学本质上是一门应用科学, 故更应注重需求牵引, 提出与解决实际生态环境问题密切相关的科学问题。原则2: 假说驱动。假说−演绎法是现代科学研究的基本范式。这对复杂适应系统的研究显得尤为重要, 好的假设可使我们从复杂现象中抓住解决科学问题的突破口, 开展直奔主题式的研究设计。原则3: 多层次综合分析。由于不同层次间作用动态变化, 且各层次成员间普遍存在非线性相互作用, 故对此类系统的研究应进行多层次综合分析。至少要考虑三个层次, 即现象发生的中心层次及其邻近的高、低两个层次。首先应对中心层次宏观量进行归纳分析, 建立经验关系即宏观格局, 进而探讨宏观格局与高层次背景及历史演化的关系, 然后开展宏观格局的低层次机制研究。原则4: 研究尺度与过程尺度相匹配。研究尺度与所研究现象相关过程的尺度不匹配是导致众多生态研究结论不可靠的最重要原因。尺度不匹配有两种类型: 实验与现象的时间、空间和组织尺度不匹配; 调查数据分析尺度与相关过程尺度不匹配。因此, 生态研究尺度必须与过程尺度相匹配。首先必须开展野外观测, 开展恰当尺度的分析, 然后在近自然系统开展长时间模拟实验, 证实野外结论, 分析机制; 中小宇宙实验应能模拟相关生态过程。原则5: 定性机制与定量模型相结合。对于适应系统, 精确的定量关系难以建立, 其原因是变量异质性、难以运用统计量演绎法。据此特点, 适应系统研究应首先阐明定性机制, 即建立概念模型。定性机制很重要, 不仅自身就有解释、预测能力, 而且为定量模型提供坚实的基础; 只有基于机制, 定量模型才能具有更强的普适性和预测能力。为了减少变量异质性的影响, 可在不同区域对定量模型进行率定, 以提高预测能力。原则6: 应用验证。除实验验证外, 应不断进行应用验证, 以检验所得规律是否真正有助于解决实际问题, 并确定其适用范围。

     

    Abstract: Ecology studies organism-environment relationships, aiming to solve eco-environmental problems faced by humanity. However, many ecological research results fail to reliably explain or predict field phenomena, let alone solve practical problems. The root cause lies in methodological issues. Unlike physical systems, ecosystems are complex adaptive systems, composed of adaptive agents each with unique intrinsic properties; they have many kinds of subsystems, various types of non-linear interactions among subsystems, and unstable interactions among system levels. Based on these characteristics, principles of philosophy of science, theories of complexity science, and successful cases in ecological researches, this paper proposes six principles of ecological research methodology for the first time, establishing the paradigm for ecological research. Principle 1: Practical problem orientation. Social needs are the fundamental driving force for scientific and technological development. As ecology is essentially an applied science, it should focus on demand-driven approaches, addressing scientific questions closely related to practical eco-environmental problems. Principle 2: Hypothesis drive. The hypothesis-deduction model is the basic paradigm of modern scientific research. This is particularly important for studying complex adaptive systems, as good hypotheses can help us grasp breakthrough points for solving scientific problems from complex phenomena, enabling targeted research designs. Principle 3: Multi-level comprehensive analysis. Due to dynamic changes in interactions among levels and prevalent non-linear interactions among members at each level, research on such systems should involve multi-level comprehensive analysis. At least three levels should be considered: the middle level where phenomena occur, and its adjacent higher and lower levels. First, macroscopic patterns, i.e. empirical relationships, among variables at the middle level should be established. Then, the relationships between macro-patterns and higher-level backgrounds and historical evolution can be analyzed, followed by lower-level mechanism studies of the patterns. Principle 4: Study-process scale match. The scale mismatch between research and processes related to studied phenomena is the most important reason for unreliable conclusions in many ecological studies. There are two types of mismatches: temporal, spatial and organizational scale mismatch between experiments and phenomena; scale mismatch between survey data analyses and related processes. Therefore, ecological research scales must match the process ones. Field observations should be conducted first, followed by appropriate scale analyses, then long-term simulation experiments in near-natural systems to confirm field conclusions and analyze mechanisms. Mesocosm experiments should be able to simulate relevant ecological processes. Principle 5: Qualitative-quantitative approaches combination, i.e. combining qualitative mechanisms with quantitative models. For adaptive systems, establishing precise quantitative relationships is difficult due to variable heterogeneity (each element of a variable is unique) and being unable to deduce conclusions from statistical variables using general rules. Given these characteristics, research on adaptive systems should first clarify qualitative mechanisms, i.e., establish conceptual models. Qualitative mechanisms are crucial, not only having explanatory and predictive power themselves but also providing a solid foundation for quantitative models. Only mechanism-based quantitative models can have stronger universality and predictive power. To reduce the impact of variable heterogeneity, quantitative models can be calibrated in different regions to improve predictive ability. Principle 6: Application tests. In addition to experimental tests, continuous application tests should be conducted to verify whether the obtained rules truly help solve practical problems and to determine their scope of application.

     

/

返回文章
返回